AUT Economics and Finance Department

Permanent link for this collection

https://hdl.handle.net/10292/10766
The AUT Economics and Finance Department has an established record and an on-going commitment to excellent research, high-quality supervision, and community and professional engagement. Members of the department sit on editorial boards and serve as referees for professional journals. The department has particular research strength in: Micro and macroeconomics, Econometrics, Industrial organisation, International trade and finance, Natural resource and environmental economics, Labour economics, Economic development, Health economics, and Public policy.

Browse

Browsing AUT Economics and Finance Department by Author "Badri Narayanan, G"

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Can India plug into Asian international production networks through RTAs?
    (Murdoch University, 2013) Sen, R; Srivastava, S; Badri Narayanan, G; Butler, D; Mangano, M
    Recent literature has focused attention on the important question of whether the current trend of proliferation of bilateral and regional trade agreements can facilitate creation and development of international production networks (IPNs) among member countries. However, majority of these adopt a partial equilibrium approach, thus ignoring the economy wide impact. As India gets increasingly integrated through calibrated globalization of its economy over the past two decades and creates a web of such trade agreements, this paper attempts to specifically analyze the effect of recent RTAs involving India on its ability to plug into IPNs in Asia by changing international trade and production patterns. The auto-parts industry, identified as one of the high-growth sectors for India’s manufacturing sector, with a potential to integrate into existing Asian IPNs, is chosen for this analysis. The paper reviews the current state of India’s participation in Asian IPNs identifying the policy challenges, and further undertakes an applied general equilibrium analysis of the above issue by utilizing the GTAP 8 database based on 2004 data to simulate the impact of tariff reduction in auto-parts for India’s currently implemented FTAs with ASEAN, Japan, Korea and EU. Additional scenarios of a productivity improvement along with reduction in trade costs along with the RTA, are also explored. The paper analyses the impact of these policy shocks on output, prices and trade volumes ,as well as their impact on overall welfare changes across all regions. The results point to the evidence that India that there are significant gains for India and its trading partners through export expansion and welfare improvements from better resource allocation not from an RTA alone, but from productivity improvement and reductions in trade costs as this should not only reduce border trade costs, but also network costs set up for an IPN.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    A Method to Analyze the Sectoral Impact of Fiscal Support for COVID-19 Affected Economies: The Case of Oceania
    (Elsevier, 2021-03-15) Badri Narayanan, G; Sen, R; Srivastava, S; Mathur, S
    In this paper, we apply the method of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling in economics to ascertain how fiscal support measures such as wage subsidies, small business loans, and finance guarantee schemes have impacted at an economy-wide and sectoral level for 8 COVID-19 affected economies in Oceania. We model our scenarios based on IMF World economic outlook projections, combined with the fiscal stimulus packages offered to counter this global health pandemic's recessionary effect. Our study confirms that the adverse impact of COVID-19 on output is cushioned through a large fiscal stimulus package wherever offered. This package would still be inadequate to avoid unemployment and job losses in tourism and education services in Oceania, with continued support essential for their survival in 2021. • The approach entails steps (1) to (3), as outlined in the paper. • Future researchers will find this method useful in evaluating the adverse impact of not only COVID-19 but any other external shocks to the economy, either directly or indirectly, that involves fiscal support mechanisms.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Tariff Liberalization in the RCEP Trade Agreement and Impact on India's Automobile Industry: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis
    (United Nations Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), 2019-04-11) Badri Narayanan, G; Sen, R; Srivastava, S
    Adequate attention has not been paid by researchers towards general equilibrium effects of trade liberalization particularly involving trade in global value chains (GVC) goods, in spite of its emergence being an established phenomenon among Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) members including India. This paper contributes in that aspect by undertaking a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) simulation utilizing the GTAP 9 database updated to 2015, augmenting it to study the automobile sector of trade in GVC goods in the Indian context. In the case of automobile industry, ours is the first attempt to employ this tool in this context and this is one of the methodological/data contributions of this paper. The key here is to analyze the welfare effects for India, in a probable futuristic scenario of a full tariff liberalization (with and without any productivity improvement) as part of the ongoing RCEP negotiations, and the specific impact of this on output, prices and trade in the automobile and auto-parts industry, wherein GVC led trade assumes significance. We first employ the Splitcom tool (Horridge, 2008) to separate automobile sector from auto-parts and components sector across the world, using the data on production and trade of these commodities in several countries, utilizing the United Nations COMTRADE dataset. Thereafter, two policy simulations are conducted. The first scenario involves a full tariff liberalization within RCEP members, focusing on the sectoral impact on finished automobiles and auto-parts industry. The second scenario simulates the additional effects of a productivity improvement in this industry on top of the RCEP tariff reductions, wherein output or trade is made exogenous by making their corresponding technological change variables endogenous, as attempted in a few earlier studies (e.g. Golub and Narayanan, 2015; Wadhwa et.al., 2017). The results suggest that while there is a positive overall welfare impact due to RCEP on the Indian economy, and trade balance improves, the automobiles and auto-parts industry in India will specifically witness an adverse impact, unless an annual productivity growth of at least 2.5% is achieved. Imports of these goods are more likely to increase than exports from India to RCEP member countries, even in presence of a productivity improvement. The paper informs policymakers in India to focus on improving domestic productivity growth in face of increased foreign competition through mega-trade deals such as RCEP.
Items in these collections are protected by the Copyright Act 1994 (New Zealand). These works may be consulted by you, provided you comply with the provisions of the Act and the following conditions of use:
  • Any use you make of these works must be for research or private study purposes only, and you may not make them available to any other person.
  • Authors control the copyright of their works. You will recognise the author’s right to be identified as the author of the work, and due acknowledgement will be made to the author where appropriate.
  • You will obtain the author’s permission before publishing any material from the work.