End-to-End Top-Down Load Forecasting Model for Residential Consumers

Date
2024-05-24
Authors
Parkash, Barkha
Lie, Tek Tjing
Li, Weihua
Tito, Shafiqur Rahman
Supervisor
Item type
Journal Article
Degree name
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
MDPI AG
Abstract

This study presents an efficient end-to-end (E2E) learning approach for the short-term load forecasting of hierarchically structured residential consumers based on the principles of a top-down (TD) approach. This technique employs a neural network for predicting load at lower hierarchical levels based on the aggregated one at the top. A simulation is carried out with 9 (from 2013 to 2021) years of energy consumption data of 50 houses located in the United States of America. Simulation results demonstrate that the E2E model, which uses a single model for different nodes and is based on the principles of a top-down approach, shows huge potential for improving forecasting accuracy, making it a valuable tool for grid planners. Model inputs are derived from the aggregated residential category and the specific cluster targeted for forecasting. The proposed model can accurately forecast any residential consumption cluster without requiring any hyperparameter adjustments. According to the experimental analysis, the E2E model outperformed a two-stage methodology and a benchmarked Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) model by a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2.27%.

Description
Keywords
40 Engineering , 33 Built Environment and Design , 51 Physical Sciences , 7 Affordable and Clean Energy , 02 Physical Sciences , 09 Engineering , 33 Built environment and design , 40 Engineering , 51 Physical sciences
Source
Energies, ISSN: 1996-1073 (Print); 1996-1073 (Online), MDPI AG, 17(11), 2550-2550. doi: 10.3390/en17112550
Rights statement
© 2024 by the author. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).