End-to-End Top-Down Load Forecasting Model for Residential Consumers

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aut.relation.endpage2550
aut.relation.issue11
aut.relation.journalEnergies
aut.relation.startpage2550
aut.relation.volume17
dc.contributor.authorParkash, Barkha
dc.contributor.authorLie, Tek Tjing
dc.contributor.authorLi, Weihua
dc.contributor.authorTito, Shafiqur Rahman
dc.date.accessioned2024-06-07T03:27:00Z
dc.date.available2024-06-07T03:27:00Z
dc.date.issued2024-05-24
dc.description.abstractThis study presents an efficient end-to-end (E2E) learning approach for the short-term load forecasting of hierarchically structured residential consumers based on the principles of a top-down (TD) approach. This technique employs a neural network for predicting load at lower hierarchical levels based on the aggregated one at the top. A simulation is carried out with 9 (from 2013 to 2021) years of energy consumption data of 50 houses located in the United States of America. Simulation results demonstrate that the E2E model, which uses a single model for different nodes and is based on the principles of a top-down approach, shows huge potential for improving forecasting accuracy, making it a valuable tool for grid planners. Model inputs are derived from the aggregated residential category and the specific cluster targeted for forecasting. The proposed model can accurately forecast any residential consumption cluster without requiring any hyperparameter adjustments. According to the experimental analysis, the E2E model outperformed a two-stage methodology and a benchmarked Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) model by a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2.27%.
dc.identifier.citationEnergies, ISSN: 1996-1073 (Print); 1996-1073 (Online), MDPI AG, 17(11), 2550-2550. doi: 10.3390/en17112550
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/en17112550
dc.identifier.issn1996-1073
dc.identifier.issn1996-1073
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10292/17637
dc.languageen
dc.publisherMDPI AG
dc.relation.urihttps://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/11/2550
dc.rights© 2024 by the author. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
dc.rights.accessrightsOpenAccess
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject40 Engineering
dc.subject33 Built Environment and Design
dc.subject51 Physical Sciences
dc.subject7 Affordable and Clean Energy
dc.subject02 Physical Sciences
dc.subject09 Engineering
dc.subject33 Built environment and design
dc.subject40 Engineering
dc.subject51 Physical sciences
dc.titleEnd-to-End Top-Down Load Forecasting Model for Residential Consumers
dc.typeJournal Article
pubs.elements-id554132
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